Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 101.002772 115.682090 132.270423 152.508095 176.670787 204.768199 240.166235
2025-12-14 82.103041 100.727889 123.656812 154.332242 194.865503 247.407966 322.037217
2025-12-21 69.744616 89.855529 116.192967 153.929195 207.824628 283.976845 403.398800
2025-12-28 64.148463 86.150315 116.535759 162.777670 233.619562 342.053094 529.076475
2026-01-04 59.316011 82.465175 115.896624 169.478285 256.781120 400.404991 671.089842
2026-01-11 55.094812 78.911196 114.666966 174.656221 277.978983 459.653669 832.183068
2026-01-18 50.980934 74.904190 112.043246 176.901616 294.281659 513.578732 1000.274520
2026-01-25 47.073832 70.708205 108.486234 176.840631 306.175112 561.612822 1172.339406
2026-02-01 43.046248 65.861869 103.236845 172.929470 309.948708 594.077154 1320.422527
2026-02-08 39.518447 61.470292 98.232592 168.684659 312.169045 623.570040 1472.253555
2026-02-15 36.516293 57.668835 93.822048 164.897657 314.548403 653.810945 1638.206979
2026-02-22 35.705790 57.517545 95.808902 173.681032 345.142265 757.748963 2065.050472
2026-03-01 33.817981 55.381938 94.095423 175.113340 360.476213 830.407469 2441.918208
2026-03-08 32.352637 53.871317 93.391350 178.561514 381.344977 924.581053 2954.944687
2026-03-15 30.597007 51.671279 91.131006 178.344403 393.318418 998.024287 3442.489198
2026-03-22 30.177476 51.907969 93.640800 189.011617 435.289641 1175.902608 4520.602901
2026-03-29 29.487193 51.559581 94.924580 197.077028 472.424281 1354.208645 5792.123161
2026-04-05 28.657636 50.862501 95.404935 203.312276 506.091022 1535.820441 7306.259538
2026-04-12 27.576286 49.573925 94.499037 206.018062 530.198197 1693.864020 8900.141799
2026-04-19 26.352058 47.900430 92.598370 205.944684 545.912806 1827.006577 10533.024072
2026-04-26 24.867136 45.587418 89.086570 201.233592 545.954408 1896.104858 11795.884242
2026-05-03 23.469998 43.362713 85.587452 196.125701 543.747276 1955.739817 13098.220819
2026-05-10 22.221439 41.366017 82.438834 191.573268 542.550621 2020.634086 14590.078732